Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:10:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3A 0x3a28…d4eb politics 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$548per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$9
other 32% −$9
world 16% −$3
economics 11% −$3
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,197) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage78d
Avg bet$548
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 19 $1,302 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 19 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $1,203 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $1,251 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,214 −$2 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO May 26 $77 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $60 $0 -0%
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 23 $32 $0 -1%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $917 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $995 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 23 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $942 −$1 -0%
EU dissolves before 2027? May 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $958 −$2 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 07 $174 $0 -0%
Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Apr 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 02 $197 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in April 2026? Apr 02 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,257 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,212 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 2h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $1,300 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 2h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $1,281 2h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 2h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $870 2h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 2h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $337 2h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $21 3h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1,209 3h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,232 24h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 24h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 25h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,193 25h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 25h
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $218 25h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 25h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 26h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $891 26h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $306 26h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 26h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,198 26h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 44h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 45h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records