Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:29:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a27…69d3 crypto 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-3%) realized −$48 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%56W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days+$59
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$35
world 4% −$11
politics 3% +$2
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +18.0% +6.8% 65% 65% -2.6%
≤30d 113 +4.4% -5.6% 50% 41% -11.3%
≤90d 113 +4.4% -5.6% 50% 41% -11.3%
all 113 +4.4% -5.6% 50% 41% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 41% -11.3%
10% -14.6% 41% -19.8%
15% -22.9% 39% -27.5%
20% -30.4% 37% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses56 / 57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage14d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 44¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$12 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$51 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $22 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $15 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $16 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $16 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.57 (match) · 284 history records