trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 5 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 40% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 40% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 16 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 62% | 0% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.9% | 0% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -18.5% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -26.4% | 0% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -33.6% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $35 | $35 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 02 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 02 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $57 | +$1 | +2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 30 | $41 | $0 | +1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 29 | $44 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? | Jun 27 | $9 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? | Apr 15 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 13 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 12 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | Mar 21 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? | Mar 19 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? | Mar 17 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on March 13? | Mar 12 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on March 11? | Mar 11 | $9 | −$2 | -17% |