Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3A 0x3a23…f4ff crypto 1696 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,290 (-48%) realized −$2,305 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%473W / 1545L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 121d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$751
sports 6% −$81
other 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 324 -99.2% -99.3% 0% 0% -99.4%
≤30d 324 -99.2% -99.3% 0% 0% -99.4%
≤90d 324 -99.2% -99.3% 0% 0% -99.4%
all 2018 -31.0% -37.6% 23% 21% -68.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.6% 21% -68.3%
10% ← realistic here -43.5% 21% -71.3%
15% -49.0% 19% -74.1%
20% -54.0% 18% -76.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -104% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$2,305
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses473 / 1545
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2018 / 1696
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2018 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $49 $64 +$15 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Kings vs. Celtics Jun 23 $198 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Nets vs. Nuggets Jun 23 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$36 -1102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 20m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 4¢ $32 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 5h
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 72¢ $122 100d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs SELL BetBoom Team 36¢ $79 100d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs SELL BetBoom Team 47¢ $16 100d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs SELL BetBoom Team 57¢ $27 100d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 29¢ $88 100d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 77¢ $88 100d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $41 100d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $40 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $0 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $0 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $0 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 100d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.55 · official $63.55 (match) · 3500 history records