Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a23…0f72
crypto · 199 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$20,813 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21,245 · open −$368
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,903
Realized+$21,245
Unrealized−$368
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses63 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions8
Markets (closed)191 / 199
History coverage36d
Avg bet$1,115
Trades / day90.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 8 History 191 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,920
7 days+$4,477
14 days+$13,367
30 days+$23,896
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $9,807 $9,703 −$104 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $48 $47 −$2 (-3%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $300 $37 −$263 (-88%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 82¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+22%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4,084 +$134 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $7,874 +$1,686 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $1,821 +$1,013 +56%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1 Jun 12 $255 +$431 +169%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $11,948 +$168 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $647 +$343 +53%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $500 +$160 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,871 +$1,606 +86%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $1,643 +$513 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $23,679 −$1,162 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $1,025 +$386 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $66 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 10, 9PM ET? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 10, 8PM ET? Jun 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum above 1,590 on June 10, 8PM ET? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 10, 8PM ET? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 8PM ET? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum above 1,640 on June 10, 8PM ET? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 10, 7PM ET? Jun 10 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 10, 7PM ET? Jun 10 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 10, 6PM ET? Jun 10 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 10, 7PM ET? Jun 10 $68 +$228 +334%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 9, 7PM ET? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $77 −$58 -75%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $226 +$47 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 9, 6PM ET? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 9, 6PM ET? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 9, 6PM ET? Jun 09 $18 +$18 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 09 $404 −$31 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $611 +$141 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $72 −$47 -65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $347 −$347 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin above 60,800 on June 7, 4PM ET? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 7, 4PM ET? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 77% +$14,313
crypto 9% +$4,757
other 7% −$39
politics 3% +$3,008
finance 2% −$3,877
economics 1% −$41
sports 1% +$2,757
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $9,963 56m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 80¢ $29 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 80¢ $3 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 80¢ $16 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 80¢ $8 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 80¢ $60 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 80¢ $131 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 80¢ $174 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 71¢ $213 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 71¢ $36 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 71¢ $3 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 71¢ $27 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 71¢ $70 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 71¢ $7 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 71¢ $19 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 71¢ $36 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 71¢ $207 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 71¢ $7 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 71¢ $8 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 71¢ $8 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 71¢ $5 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 71¢ $5 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 71¢ $55 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 71¢ $21 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 71¢ $36 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 69¢ $8 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 69¢ $2 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 69¢ $106 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 69¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -28.8% -35.6% 33% 28% -2.6%
≤30d 165 +1.0% -8.6% 36% 30% +1.7%
≤90d 191 -6.3% -15.2% 33% 28% -0.4%
all 191 -6.3% -15.2% 33% 28% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover90.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 28% -0.4%
10% -23.3% 24% -9.9%
15% ← realistic here -30.7% 19% -18.6%
20% -37.5% 16% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,902.73 · official $9,902.73 (match) · 3500 history records