Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a23…4f8d sports 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%26W / 120L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$24
politics 24% −$17
other 22% −$12
crypto 10% −$2
economics 7% −$6
culture 3% −$5
finance 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 57 -0.2% -9.7% 21% 0% -9.7%
all 146 -0.2% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses26 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage162d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 20 $66 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $61 $0 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $115 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 15 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $120 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $63 $0 +0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $41 $0 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $387 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $284 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 11 $47 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 10 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $261 −$2 -1%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $257 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 03 $815 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $214 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $412 −$6 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $56 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 31 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $520 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $427 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 29 $289 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 29 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 28 $185 −$4 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $279 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 27 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $144 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 27 $139 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $667 −$2 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $141 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $66 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $66 9h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 12d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $61 12d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $50 24d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $50 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $50 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 35d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $62 64d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $62 65d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $49 65d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $49 65d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $55 65d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $55 65d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $65 65d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $65 66d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 66d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 66d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $63 66d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $63 66d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $54 66d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $54 66d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $39 66d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $39 67d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 67d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $54 67d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $41 67d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $41 67d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $60 67d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $60 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 655 history records