Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a22…f06e weather 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$928 (-14%) realized −$933 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate57%24W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$4
14 days−$22
30 days−$966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$910
other 31% −$30
weather 22% −$23
politics 1% +$2
sports 1% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +13.7% +2.9% 43% 17% -8.9%
≤30d 42 +5.7% -4.4% 57% 10% -22.9%
≤90d 42 +5.7% -4.4% 57% 10% -22.9%
all 42 +5.7% -4.4% 57% 10% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 10% -22.9%
10% -13.5% 10% -30.3%
15% -21.9% 5% -37.0%
20% -29.5% 5% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$57 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$933
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses24 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)42 / 49
History coverage29d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 97¢ 100¢ $87 $89 +$2 (+3%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 91¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+8%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 8¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $41 +$9 +23%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +160%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $2 +$19 +1116%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $82 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $68 −$6 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 11 $69 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $106 −$13 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $129 −$22 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $51 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 6? Jun 07 $82 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $93 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $97 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,274 −$637 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1,724 −$273 -16%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,969 −$35 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $7 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $8 20h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 81¢ $41 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 26h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL No 52¢ $5 27h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 54¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 39h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 8¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $57 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $58 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $48 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $82 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 97¢ $49 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.93 · official $143.93 (match) · 110 history records