Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a21…7789 other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate51%40W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$169
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$80
crypto 37% −$117
politics 9% −$1
economics 7% $0
world 3% −$3
sports 2% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 31 -2.0% -11.4% 48% 32% -12.7%
≤90d 61 -7.2% -16.0% 48% 21% -12.6%
all 79 -5.3% -14.3% 51% 18% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 18% -9.9%
10% -22.5% 16% -18.5%
15% -30.0% 15% -26.4%
20% -36.8% 15% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$26 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses40 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage129d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $324 −$19 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $244 −$37 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $54 +$50 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $297 −$121 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $170 −$54 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $301 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $120 +$108 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $27 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $27 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $110 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $83 +$136 +163%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 4, 2026? Jun 02 $0 $0 +7%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 6, 2026? Jun 02 $0 $0 -16%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 22, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$2 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $112 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $87 +$28 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 17 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $212 +$20 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $212 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 11 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 11 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $100 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $89 +$121 +135%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $64 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $155 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $164 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $107 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $109 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $54 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $89 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $95 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $113 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $93 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $100 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $61 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $59 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $54 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $55 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.02 · official $41.86 (match) · 246 history records