Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3A 0x3a20…b647 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$33 (+27%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$20
sports 13% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +51.2% +36.8% 100% 67% +18.2%
≤30d 3 +51.2% +36.8% 100% 67% +18.2%
≤90d 3 +51.2% +36.8% 100% 67% +18.2%
all 3 +51.2% +36.8% 100% 67% +18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.8% 67% +18.2%
10% +23.7% 67% +6.9%
15% +11.7% 67% -3.4%
20% +0.8% 33% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$14 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$6 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $16 +$18 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 96¢ $54 58m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $33 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 64¢ $33 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $34 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $16 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records