Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:57:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3A 0x3a1f…bb0e other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$17 (+5%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$94
sports 35% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +37.2% +24.2% 100% 100% +31.7%
≤30d 3 +37.2% +24.2% 100% 100% +31.7%
≤90d 3 +37.2% +24.2% 100% 100% +31.7%
all 3 +37.2% +24.2% 100% 100% +31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.2% 100% +31.7%
10% +12.3% 33% +19.1%
15% +1.4% 33% +7.6%
20% -8.5% 33% -2.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage8d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 87¢ 86¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $95 +$15 +16%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $88 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $95 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran BUY 65¢ $25 8d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.49 · official $87.49 (match) · 8 history records