Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3A 0x3a1d…dac1 politics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$4
other 34% $0
world 28% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -3.2% -12.5% 75% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 4 -3.2% -12.5% 75% 0% -12.2%
all 9 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage126d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 21 $30 −$4 -14%
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H Mar 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next Mar 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats Mar 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026? Feb 12 $110 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 21d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 1¢ $26 27d
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 27d
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H SELL Yes 0¢ $1 90d
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H SELL Yes 0¢ $38 90d
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H BUY Yes 0¢ $39 90d
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next SELL Yes 0¢ $36 95d
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next BUY Yes 0¢ $36 95d
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats SELL Yes 0¢ $19 99d
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats BUY Yes 0¢ $19 99d
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? SELL Yes 0¢ $31 101d
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 101d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $36 125d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $35 125d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $38 125d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $38 125d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $38 125d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $38 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.84 · official $34.84 (match) · 24 history records