Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3A 0x3a1b…2545 sports 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$41 (+5%) realized +$42 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%8W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$28
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$264
other 49% −$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +33.7% +21.0% 24% 24% -2.8%
≤30d 31 +29.4% +17.1% 26% 26% -4.7%
≤90d 31 +29.4% +17.1% 26% 26% -4.7%
all 31 +29.4% +17.1% 26% 26% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.1% 26% -4.7%
10% +5.9% 26% -13.8%
15% -4.4% 26% -22.1%
20% -13.7% 23% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +90% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$20 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage11d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$50 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$60 +388%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$14 +57%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$141 +1374%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$122 +596%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$45 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 1h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $16 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 20h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 21h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $21 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Under 36¢ $20 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 21h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $20 21h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 34h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 46h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 46h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 46h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $16 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $25 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 6d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 8d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.90 · official $239.90 (match) · 43 history records