Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3A 0x3a19…57fd crypto 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-14%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$24
sports 19% −$2
tech 3% +$3
other 1% $0
world 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.7% -2.6% 100% 0% -2.6%
≤30d 6 +65.0% +49.3% 100% 83% +39.0%
≤90d 6 +65.0% +49.3% 100% 83% +39.0%
all 28 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 46% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 46% -25.3%
10% -19.6% 46% -32.4%
15% -27.4% 43% -39.0%
20% -34.5% 39% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage108d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 65¢ 64¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 27 $1 $0 +8%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? May 31 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? May 31 $1 +$1 +108%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? May 31 $1 +$1 +127%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? May 31 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? May 31 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 11 $15 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 11 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 11 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 11 $1 +$2 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 11 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 11 $15 +$23 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 11 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 11 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 11 $6 +$6 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 65¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.58 · official $26.58 (match) · 61 history records