Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a18…edeb other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$426 (+2%) realized +$426 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate58%41W / 30L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$328
7 days−$51
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$1,064
sports 46% +$972
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +56.2% +41.3% 57% 28% -10.1%
≤30d 71 +44.0% +30.3% 58% 28% -10.3%
≤90d 71 +44.0% +30.3% 58% 28% -10.3%
all 71 +44.0% +30.3% 58% 28% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.3% 28% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here +17.9% 24% -18.9%
15% +6.5% 21% -26.7%
20% -4.0% 17% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +105% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$98 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$426
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses41 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage9d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 25 $208 +$2 +1%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 25 $436 −$385 -88%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 25 $1,353 +$121 +9%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 25 $132 $0 +0%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $1,602 −$182 -11%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals Jun 25 $743 +$7 +1%
Gessime Yassine: 1+ goals Jun 25 $72 +$1 +1%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals Jun 24 $98 −$96 -98%
Wilson Isidor: 1+ goals Jun 24 $200 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $987 +$13 +1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $570 +$430 +75%
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Jun 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Ante Budimir: 1+ goals Jun 24 $112 +$1 +1%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $490 +$10 +2%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $689 +$311 +45%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 23 $214 +$36 +17%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $295 +$205 +70%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $382 −$220 -58%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $350 −$350 -100%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $200 −$97 -49%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $207 −$151 -73%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $883 +$14 +2%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 23 $182 −$37 -20%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $629 −$340 -54%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $128 −$102 -80%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals Jun 22 $68 +$13 +19%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $207 −$7 -3%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $490 +$10 +2%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 22 $362 +$137 +38%
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals Jun 22 $240 +$10 +4%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $277 −$7 -2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $886 +$114 +13%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $298 −$96 -32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $493 +$7 +2%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 21 $94 +$6 +7%
Mikel Merino: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 +$13 +66%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 21 $168 +$44 +26%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 21 $13 −$9 -65%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $480 +$520 +108%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $151 +$101 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $35 +$37 +108%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $245 +$255 +104%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $147 −$144 -98%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $132 33m
Gessime Yassine: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $1 46m
Gessime Yassine: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $71 47m
Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals SELL No $2 59m
Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $85 59m
Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $13 59m
Wilson Isidor: 1+ goals BUY No $2 1h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $14 1h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $208 1h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $14 1h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $33 1h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $11 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Wilson Isidor: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $93 1h
Wilson Isidor: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $105 1h
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $24 1h
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $65 1h
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $531 1h
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $25 1h
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $98 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 84¢ $7 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 84¢ $10 2h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY No 90¢ $354 2h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY No 90¢ $20 2h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY No 63¢ $47 2h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY No 90¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 515 history records