Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a18…d98c sports 155 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$95 (-2%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%86W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$44
sports 17% −$16
weather 5% −$42
other 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.8% -1.6% 50% 50% -5.5%
≤30d 14 +8.8% -1.6% 50% 50% -5.5%
≤90d 151 -8.3% -17.0% 55% 43% -11.2%
all 155 -6.6% -15.5% 55% 44% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 44% -10.8%
10% -23.6% 35% -19.3%
15% -31.0% 30% -27.1%
20% -37.7% 25% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses86 / 69
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage91d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $111 +$26 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$15 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$25 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $100 −$41 -41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$21 +105%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $88 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $96 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 01 $7 −$7 -93%
Valorant: Wolves Esports vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omeg Apr 01 $9 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 01 $42 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 01 $30 +$12 +40%
Valorant: Fnatic vs ULF Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 01 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 01 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 01 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 01 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 01 $15 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 01 $14 +$16 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 01 $14 $0 +2%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha Apr 01 $8 +$6 +77%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Am Apr 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Polar Squad Esports GC vs Olimpo Gold (BO3) - VCT Game Chang Apr 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Apr 01 $9 +$15 +173%
Valorant: Insomnia vs REJECT (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 2 Apr 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legion vs DEPO (BO3) - PGL Astana: West Asia Closer Qu Mar 31 $5 +$5 +86%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Playoffs Mar 31 $8 −$8 -98%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha Mar 31 $5 +$3 +48%
Valorant: Nova Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Mar 31 $5 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs G2 (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs Mar 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Pla Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: QoR vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stag Mar 31 $6 +$3 +53%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoff Mar 30 $5 +$4 +74%
Valorant: REIGNITE FOXX vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 2 Mar 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: ShindeN vs Melser Kindergarten (BO5) - VCL Latin America Sou Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: LYON vs Contra (BO5) - VCL Latin America North Playoffs Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Mandatory vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Motiv Esports vs 555 - Map 4 Winner Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Motiv Esports vs 555 - Map 2 Winner Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 30 $269 −$269 -100%
Valorant: Mandatory vs Enterprise Esports (BO5) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs Mar 30 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 25¢ $59 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 40¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 402 history records