Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a17…84eb other 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%25W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$14
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$10
other 24% −$6
sports 21% −$6
crypto 8% −$2
culture 4% −$1
world 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 69 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 113 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 216 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses25 / 191
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)216 / 217
History coverage153d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 16 $47 $0 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $16 $0 -3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $12 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 14 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $35 −$1 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $62 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $77 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $14 $0 -3%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $15 $0 -1%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 11 $18 +$1 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 10 $14 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $17 $0 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 09 $23 $0 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 09 $15 $0 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $16 $0 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 08 $18 $0 -1%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $12 $0 -4%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $72 $0 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $289 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 05 $18 $0 -2%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $21 −$1 -6%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $127 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $31 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $164 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $17 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $17 9h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $14 10h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $14 15h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $10 16h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $11 22h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $16 22h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $16 29h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $10 30h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $10 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $11 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $11 42h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $12 43h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $12 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $14 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $14 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $15 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $15 2d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 97¢ $13 2d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 98¢ $14 2d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $10 2d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $10 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $15 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $16 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $24 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $24 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.84 · official $19.84 (match) · 859 history records