Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a15…b70a other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate22%12W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$10
other 23% +$4
economics 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% −$2
culture 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 15 +3.5% -6.4% 20% 7% -8.4%
≤90d 43 +1.2% -8.4% 21% 9% -9.4%
all 54 +0.9% -8.7% 22% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 7% -9.7%
10% -17.5% 7% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 7% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses12 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage628d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $8 +$4 +55%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $71 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 +$10 +140%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $62 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $67 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $134 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $198 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 17 $65 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +83%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $9 +$7 +75%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 05 $49 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $43 −$1 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 01 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 8d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $14 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $14 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 18d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $18 18d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $18 18d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $18 19d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $18 19d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $31 22d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 23d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ $8 24d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $17 26d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $17 26d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $75 27d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $75 27d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $72 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.04 · official $46.04 (match) · 305 history records