Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a15…95d9
crypto · 1630 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$66 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$742 · open +$43
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$150
Realized+$742
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses136 / 813
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)949 / 1630
History coverage32d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day102.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 949 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158
7 days−$70
14 days+$1,258
30 days+$936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $88 $114 +$26 (+30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 23¢ $10 $31 +$21 (+207%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 6¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-74%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 5¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% +$708
other 4% +$14
world 2% +$174
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 4m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Germany vs. Cura BUY 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -39.2% -45.0% 10% 10% -20.0%
≤30d 775 +3.0% -6.8% 15% 15% +18.0%
≤90d 949 -7.0% -15.8% 14% 14% +7.0%
all 949 -7.0% -15.8% 14% 14% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover102.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 14% +7.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 14% -3.3%
15% -31.2% 14% -12.6%
20% -38.0% 13% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.94 · official $219.87 · 3500 history records