Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a14…9fe4 sports 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,214 (-10%) realized −$1,235 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%53W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$792
7 days+$722
14 days−$377
30 days−$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$824
other 3% −$134
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +11.9% +1.3% 42% 42% +19.7%
≤30d 86 -16.8% -24.7% 33% 30% -13.4%
≤90d 158 -17.6% -25.5% 34% 31% -16.7%
all 158 -17.6% -25.5% 34% 31% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 31% -16.7%
10% -32.6% 30% -24.6%
15% -39.1% 30% -31.9%
20% -45.1% 27% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$57 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$1,235
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses53 / 105
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage37d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Roman Andres Burruchaga 19¢ 24¢ $88 $109 +$21 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $91 +$98 +107%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 23 $250 +$242 +97%
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 23 $42 −$41 -97%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 23 $220 +$73 +33%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 23 $44 +$175 +394%
Plovdiv: Dinko Dinev vs Dali Blanch Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 22 $81 −$80 -99%
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $98 −$96 -98%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $156 −$153 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 22 $152 +$106 +70%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $37 −$36 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $143 +$210 +147%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $100 +$198 +197%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $153 −$153 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $97 +$182 +188%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $82 +$115 +139%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $48 +$34 +70%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $102 +$136 +134%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez Jun 16 $24 −$23 -97%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $30 −$6 -20%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $4 −$1 -20%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $61 −$30 -50%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $11 −$9 -77%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $55 +$4 +6%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $69 −$58 -84%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $46 −$45 -97%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $75 −$74 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $93 −$18 -20%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $135 −$132 -98%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $18 +$25 +137%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $135 +$5 +4%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $257 −$122 -47%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $207 −$89 -43%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $198 −$194 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $278 −$173 -62%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $266 −$261 -98%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $128 −$125 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $167 −$164 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $232 +$332 +143%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $185 −$181 -98%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $295 −$290 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $565 +$215 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 23¢ $49 8m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 16¢ $41 19m
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 100¢ $190 1h
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 47¢ $91 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey SELL Giles Hussey 100¢ $492 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 50¢ $250 2h
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Marc Polmans 11¢ $42 3h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo SELL Fabian Marozsan 100¢ $292 3h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Fabian Marozsan 75¢ $220 3h
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas SELL Eero Vasa 100¢ $220 4h
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Eero Vasa 20¢ $44 6h
Plovdiv: Dinko Dinev vs Dali Blanch BUY Dinko Dinev 13¢ $46 7h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Eduardo Ribeiro 52¢ $81 15h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 39¢ $98 18h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Luca Castelnuovo 24¢ $102 18h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Alex Hernandez 45¢ $102 20h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Alex Hernandez 25¢ $54 20h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin SELL Jan Choinski 100¢ $258 20h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Jan Choinski 58¢ $152 21h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Venus Williams 57¢ $33 21h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Adam Walton 100¢ $352 22h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Venus Williams 11¢ $4 23h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 40¢ $143 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Juan Manuel Cerundolo 100¢ $298 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $279 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 33¢ $100 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 34¢ $97 24h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan SELL Fabian Marozsan 100¢ $197 24h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Fabian Marozsan 41¢ $82 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane SELL Gabriel Diallo 99¢ $83 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.41 · official $109.41 (match) · 281 history records