Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a12…ed82 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%7W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% $0
politics 30% $0
world 27% −$1
crypto 3% −$2
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -3.5% -12.7% 24% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses7 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage372d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $94 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $88 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on July 8 at 5PM ET? Aug 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in June 2025? Jul 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jul 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 04 $28 $0 -1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 14 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $12 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $13 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $13 12h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $46 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $42 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $42 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $4 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $46 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $4 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $3 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $8 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $29 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $29 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.04 · official $41.02 (match) · 80 history records