Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a11…ca0e crypto 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$64 (-16%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%53W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day79.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -16.2% -24.2% 43% 41% -24.8%
≤30d 122 -16.2% -24.2% 43% 41% -24.8%
≤90d 122 -16.2% -24.2% 43% 41% -24.8%
all 122 -16.2% -24.2% 43% 41% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 41% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 37% -32.0%
15% -38.0% 37% -38.6%
20% -44.1% 29% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses53 / 69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day79.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.60 · official $0.00 · 292 history records