Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3A 0x3a0f…e5f4 crypto 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$145 (+2%) realized +$150 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%111W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$79
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$410
sports 28% −$125
other 18% +$55
world 1% −$10
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -3.5% -12.7% 53% 50% -11.6%
≤30d 36 +0.9% -8.7% 58% 56% -10.6%
≤90d 177 -18.3% -26.1% 45% 41% -21.0%
all 231 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 44% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 44% -15.2%
10% -27.7% 36% -23.3%
15% -34.7% 28% -30.7%
20% -41.1% 22% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$20 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$425
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses111 / 120
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions4
Markets (closed)231 / 235
History coverage153d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $122 +$123 +101%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $499 +$42 +8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $122 +$145 +119%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $104 −$102 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 18 $226 +$40 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $415 −$113 -27%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $88 +$105 +118%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $88 −$88 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $92 +$134 +146%
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 +$31 +76%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $98 −$69 -71%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $98 +$137 +140%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $88 +$19 +21%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$101 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $98 +$102 +103%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Titouan Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $72 +$36 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $127 +$43 +34%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $62 −$60 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $59 +$12 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$1 -1%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $32 +$18 +57%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $34 +$18 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$6 +18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $21 +$9 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 4? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1PM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 05 $3 +$7 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 05 $6 +$2 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $6 −$4 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $3 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 04 $14 −$6 -39%
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 May 04 $5 +$5 +101%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $131 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 1h
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $299 12h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $200 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $104 13h
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $122 13h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $122 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $31 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $9 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 74¢ $171 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $755 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 52¢ $49 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 47¢ $49 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $119 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 48¢ $78 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $193 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 51¢ $124 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 26¢ $84 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 26¢ $84 29h
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $88 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.23 · official $425.23 (match) · 669 history records