Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a0b…4b8c other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$1
world 37% −$5
politics 9% $0
finance 7% $0
economics 6% $0
crypto 4% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 11 -1.2% -10.7% 0% 0% -11.0%
all 38 +4.5% -5.4% 32% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 3% -9.7%
10% -14.5% 3% -18.3%
15% -22.8% 3% -26.2%
20% -30.3% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage406d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 51¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $50 −$5 -10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $40 −$1 -3%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 28 $4 −$1 -27%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 26 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +221%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 11 $2 $0 -17%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump by Monday? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 08 $27 $0 +1%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 04 $27 +$1 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Nacionalista win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 51¢ $2 13h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 51¢ $31 13h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 51¢ $34 15h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 42h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $21 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $1 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 59¢ $24 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $25 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $8 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $36 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $18 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $36 24d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $36 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 42¢ $37 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.57 · official $1.57 (match) · 107 history records