Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a09…f9f7 sports 169 markets active 3d ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (191 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$125,537 (+15%) realized +$125,537 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%96W / 73L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$4,969per market
Trades / day191.3pace
Fees−$10,856est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$28,590
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (191 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 48% -24.3%
≤30d 169 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 54% -6.4%
≤90d 169 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 54% -6.4%
all 169 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 54% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover191.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 54% -6.4%
10% -17.4% 51% -15.4%
15% ← realistic here -25.4% 41% -23.6%
20% -32.7% 35% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$7,374) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,718 vs −$4,498 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$125,537
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses96 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$10,856
Open positions0
Markets (closed)169 / 169
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$4,969
Trades / day191.3
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 169 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6,967 −$6,967 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7,181 −$7,180 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $14,537 +$7,694 +53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4,393 +$2,500 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $11,390 +$6,343 +56%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10,134 +$11,879 +117%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15,800 −$15,800 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3,220 −$3,220 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $14,998 −$14,998 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,926 −$1,926 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,273 +$1,778 +78%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $574 −$574 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,405 −$2,405 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $12,894 +$4,309 +33%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $642 +$2,568 +400%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3,824 +$1,079 +28%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $15,188 +$4,153 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $15,718 −$15,718 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $15,195 −$15,194 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $7,003 +$2,345 +34%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,672 −$3,672 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $15,412 +$10,976 +71%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $12,144 −$12,144 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $15,814 +$15,477 +98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $7,374 −$7,374 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $3,157 −$3,157 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 09 $10,079 −$10,079 -100%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $3,537 +$1,441 +41%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $11,102 +$5,648 +51%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2,052 −$2,052 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,664 −$2,664 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,599 −$1,599 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,314 −$2,314 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,847 −$2,847 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $1,724 −$1,724 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $3,874 −$3,874 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,113 −$2,113 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $4,213 −$4,213 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $7,266 −$7,266 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $6,918 −$6,918 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $5,089 −$5,089 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $6,560 −$6,560 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $133 −$133 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $162 −$162 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $301 −$301 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 08 $329 −$329 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $702 −$702 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $766 −$766 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $320 −$320 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $3,174 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $10 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $50 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $15 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $63 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $5 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $2 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $20 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $57 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $954 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $6 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $703 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $48 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $899 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $1 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $13 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $83 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $4 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $13 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 44¢ $8 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 44¢ $1 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 44¢ $5 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $1 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $739 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $61 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $18 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $11 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $4 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $542 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $81 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records