Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:07:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a07…267f sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-4%) realized −$39 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$11
other 41% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -22.8% -30.1% 32% 32% -6.8%
≤30d 40 -22.8% -30.1% 32% 32% -6.8%
≤90d 40 -22.8% -30.1% 32% 32% -6.8%
all 40 -22.8% -30.1% 32% 32% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 32% -6.8%
10% -36.8% 32% -15.7%
15% -42.9% 32% -23.9%
20% -48.5% 28% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 48
History coverage5d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 72¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 72¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Arda Güler: 1+ assists Yes 21¢ 48¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+126%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 36¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $40 +$17 +43%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $30 +$23 +76%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 25 $15 −$2 -11%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivo Jun 25 $30 +$11 +35%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 +$16 +78%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 25 $30 −$2 -6%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$18 +71%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $36 +$34 +96%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 24 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -16%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $15 +$11 +74%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$15 +76%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +55%
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $64 −$11 -17%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 +$7 +73%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $7 +$9 +128%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$38 +250%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$11 +134%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 −$15 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $18 1m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Arda Güler: 1+ assists BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $58 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $40 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $54 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $10 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $15 4h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $14 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $30 4h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivo SELL 99¢ $41 4h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $15 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 4h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $36 5h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivo BUY 72¢ $30 8h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 58¢ $29 14h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $30 14h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 14h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 23h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $7 23h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $10 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $43 23h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY South Africa 14¢ $10 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.97 · official $72.97 (match) · 74 history records