Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a06…ea5e crypto 340 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (385 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,849 (-33%) realized −$15,849 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate34%275W / 526L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day384.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,323
7 days−$14,167
14 days−$13,397
30 days−$13,397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (385 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-60.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 584 -80.9% -82.7% 15% 12% -56.0%
≤30d 801 -56.7% -60.8% 34% 23% -27.8%
≤90d 801 -56.7% -60.8% 34% 23% -27.8%
all 801 -56.7% -60.8% 34% 23% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover384.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.8% 23% -27.8%
10% ← realistic here -64.6% 11% -34.7%
15% -68.0% 4% -41.0%
20% -71.1% 1% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$39 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15,849
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses275 / 526
Open positions0
Markets (closed)801 / 340
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$140
Trades / day384.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 801 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$7 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$20 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$35 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$9 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$18 -203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$9 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $133 −$133 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$32 -203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $9 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $29 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $49 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $19 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $50 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records