Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3A 0x3a05…9a09 crypto 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$52 (+1%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate92%37W / 3L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% +$28
crypto 31% −$2
sports 1% +$21
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 21 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 40 +1.5% -8.2% 92% 10% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 10% -8.1%
10% -16.9% 10% -16.9%
15% -25.0% 10% -25.0%
20% -32.3% 10% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.4 per $1 lost it wins $3.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses37 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage608d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 03 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? Jun 01 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? May 28 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? May 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 29? May 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 22? Apr 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 11? Apr 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 8? Apr 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 2? Apr 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 26? Apr 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 25? Mar 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 20? Mar 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Mar 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 12? Feb 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? Feb 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? Feb 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of December? Jan 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of December 1 above $90? Dec 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Dec 04 $10 $0 +1%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Nov 13 $18 +$18 +100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 24 $1,534 +$28 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $12 +$8 +62%
Will Trump say "Tammy Baldwin" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1? Nov 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Pelicans vs. Warriors Nov 01 $6 +$9 +133%
Bitcoin above $69,000 on October 25? Oct 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2024? Oct 28 $11 +$5 +52%
Chargers vs. Cardinals Oct 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $787 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $41 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 41d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 56d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 58d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 68d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 70d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 77d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 83d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 85d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $39 111d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 127d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 128d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 99¢ $20 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $39 132d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? BUY No 99¢ $20 133d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 137d
Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of December? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 177d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of December 1 above $90? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 195d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.96 · official $40.96 (match) · 159 history records