Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a01…a9ed world 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$143 (-2%) realized −$190 · open +$47
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%23W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$49
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 24% −$75
crypto 20% −$2
other 19% −$8
politics 12% −$14
economics 9% −$1
sports 8% $0
tech 8% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.7% -21.9% 33% 33% +1.5%
≤30d 9 -15.4% -23.5% 33% 11% -4.9%
≤90d 15 -15.7% -23.8% 40% 7% -12.0%
all 59 -5.6% -14.6% 39% 2% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 2% -11.9%
10% -22.7% 2% -20.3%
15% -30.2% 2% -28.0%
20% -37.0% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses23 / 36
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage257d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jordan 57¢ 75¢ $150 $197 +$47 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 26 $290 −$1 -0%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$3 +3%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 19 $120 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 17 $120 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 14 $120 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 23 $120 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 17 $120 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 07 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 22 $100 −$1 -0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Mar 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Mar 09 $100 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 02 $100 −$14 -14%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 28 $100 $0 +0%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 18 $100 −$4 -4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Feb 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 06 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 04 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 02 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 29 $100 +$1 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? Jan 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)? Jan 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 22 $100 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Jan 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)? Jan 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Jan 14 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 09 $100 $0 -0%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026? Jan 07 $100 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 06 $100 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 04 $100 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jan 02 $100 +$1 +1%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jan 01 $100 −$1 -1%
US recession in 2025? Dec 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Dec 29 $100 −$3 -3%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 26 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $152 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 47h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 99¢ $169 47h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $170 3d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 62¢ $101 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 7d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 82¢ $103 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 79¢ $101 9d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $120 9d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $120 9d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 99¢ $119 9d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $120 10d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $120 10d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $120 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $120 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $120 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $120 36d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? SELL No 100¢ $120 36d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $120 41d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? SELL No 100¢ $120 41d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $120 45d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 69d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $102 69d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $100 76d
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets BUY Trail Blazers 74¢ $100 82d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $100 91d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $101 91d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 97d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $99 97d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.37 · official $197.37 (match) · 120 history records