Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a01…c89e sports 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,442 (-1%) realized −$2,484 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%60W / 39L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,946per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$1,358est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$500
14 days−$10,224
30 days−$3,656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,614
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -66.3% -69.5% 33% 0% -39.5%
≤30d 99 -11.7% -20.1% 61% 39% -11.2%
≤90d 99 -11.7% -20.1% 61% 39% -11.2%
all 99 -11.7% -20.1% 61% 39% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 39% -11.2%
10% -27.7% 25% -19.7%
15% ← realistic here -34.7% 17% -27.5%
20% -41.1% 8% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$2,786) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$488 vs −$844 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$2,077
Realized−$2,484
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses60 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,358
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage27d
Avg bet$1,946
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 73¢ 100¢ $700 $965 +$265 (+38%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner FURIA 72¢ 84¢ $693 $810 +$117 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 16¢ 16¢ $210 $202 −$8 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 0¢ 32¢ $0 $98 +$98 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner FURIA 2¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $507 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $6,833 +$572 +8%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$58 +57%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $3,042 −$3,000 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $237 −$96 -40%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $5,236 +$909 +17%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,123 +$351 +16%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $930 −$204 -22%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $6,839 +$110 +2%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $3,233 −$568 -18%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $849 −$831 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2,177 +$389 +18%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $3,841 −$3,795 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,682 +$4,186 +249%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $113 −$113 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 06 $205 −$205 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,811 −$1,811 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 06 $2,786 −$2,786 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2,615 −$2,615 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $154 −$154 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,430 −$1,430 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $5,354 −$1,967 -37%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $103 +$65 +63%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1,219 +$357 +29%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,724 +$454 +26%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $2,967 +$2,263 +76%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $603 +$121 +20%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $2,439 +$870 +36%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $2,022 −$816 -40%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $500 +$8 +2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $109 +$6 +5%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $2,661 +$229 +9%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $60 −$59 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $3,053 −$1,442 -47%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $6,176 +$2,370 +38%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $101 +$80 +79%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $709 −$334 -47%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qual May 30 $202 +$110 +54%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $2,363 −$1,186 -50%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $101 +$36 +36%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 2 Winner May 30 $1,017 −$350 -34%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $604 +$137 +23%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $6,035 −$645 -11%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,814 +$66 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $102 0m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 12¢ $10 14m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 16¢ $103 15m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 17¢ $102 16m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $101 19m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 75¢ $101 24m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 75¢ $101 25m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 73¢ $94 25m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 73¢ $101 25m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 73¢ $101 25m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 73¢ $101 25m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 1¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 1¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 12¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 13¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 13¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 66¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 67¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 67¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 67¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 82¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 82¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 82¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 55¢ $101 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 50¢ $102 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 54¢ $101 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 56¢ $101 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 55¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $10 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $1,000 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,076.70 · official $1,985.16 · 722 history records