Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a00…170b other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$122 (-11%) realized −$102 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$16
14 days+$32
30 days+$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 37% +$14
other 30% −$15
sports 23% +$150
world 5% −$18
politics 5% −$19
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -57.6% -61.7% 17% 17% -28.4%
≤30d 13 +109.4% +89.5% 31% 31% +48.3%
≤90d 32 +22.8% +11.1% 28% 25% -9.5%
all 33 +22.8% +11.1% 30% 27% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.1% 27% -9.2%
10% +0.5% 18% -17.9%
15% -9.2% 15% -25.8%
20% -18.1% 15% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$11 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)33 / 52
History coverage150d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-69%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+44%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $51 −$3 -6%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 23 $7 +$4 +60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $70 +$50 +71%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 18 $21 +$4 +18%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $6 +$250 +4054%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $19 −$4 -20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government May 28 $28 −$27 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $18 +$2 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 21 $15 +$30 +191%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 20 $19 +$2 +8%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 14 $12 −$6 -50%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se May 13 $50 +$15 +29%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $12 +$5 +38%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Play May 13 $46 −$11 -24%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup May 13 $90 −$90 -100%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 08 $16 −$15 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 08 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $184 −$2 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 08 $195 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 25 $14 +$3 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 4h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 19h
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 26h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 6d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $6 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in BUY 7¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.13 · official $30.14 (match) · 110 history records