Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x39ff…cebf
crypto · 6 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$14 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$14 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$10 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 50% -27.3%
≤30d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 50% -27.3%
≤90d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 50% -27.3%
all 6 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 50% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 50% -27.3%
10% -17.3% 33% -34.3%
15% -25.3% 33% -40.6%
20% -32.6% 33% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records