Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39fd…5a3f sports 422 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 157d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$110,621 (-21%) realized −$110,295 · open −$326
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%255W / 166L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,257per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$886est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 158d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$19,790
other 2% +$7,840
politics 0% +$2,282
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +8.6% -1.7% 53% 53% -16.9%
≤30d 31 +2.8% -7.0% 55% 55% -7.5%
≤90d 171 -7.9% -16.7% 51% 51% -23.7%
all 421 +2.1% -7.6% 61% 58% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 58% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 51% -19.6%
15% -24.5% 40% -27.4%
20% -31.9% 31% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,586) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$622 vs −$1,012 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110,295
Unrealized−$326
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses255 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$886
Open positions1
Markets (closed)421 / 422
History coverage158d ⚠
Avg bet$1,257
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 421 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 0¢ $326 $0 −$326 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $540 −$540 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $236 +$164 +70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $119 +$151 +127%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 15 $248 +$74 +30%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $170 +$77 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $172 −$1 -0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $686 −$686 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $415 −$415 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $235 +$265 +113%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $780 −$780 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $475 +$844 +178%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $355 +$144 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $410 +$410 +100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 10 $240 +$174 +72%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $338 −$98 -29%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $508 −$508 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1,118 +$2,282 +204%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $368 −$368 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $369 +$116 +32%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 31 $245 +$126 +51%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $390 −$390 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) May 30 $448 +$182 +41%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 30 $283 +$166 +59%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5) May 29 $335 +$124 +37%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $249 −$244 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $196 +$32 +16%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 20 $1,325 −$1,325 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $669 +$669 +100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) May 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 12 $33 −$33 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+1.5) May 12 $2,412 −$2,412 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 12 $1,580 +$418 +26%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $1,191 −$1,170 -98%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 217.5 May 11 $1,011 +$862 +85%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 11 $1,447 +$1,447 +100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 10 $2,060 −$400 -19%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 10 $667 +$783 +117%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $1,443 −$1,443 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $1,994 +$851 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $1,300 +$698 +54%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 10 $1,460 −$1,460 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Hanwha Eagles May 09 $174 −$174 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 09 $1,715 +$735 +43%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 08 $680 +$320 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $332 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $0 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $206 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $203 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $109 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $11 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 28h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ $236 30h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 44¢ $66 44h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 44¢ $53 44h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $321 44h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ $248 45h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $248 46h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 68¢ $111 2d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 68¢ $50 2d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 68¢ $9 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $171 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $172 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $686 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $123 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $83 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $209 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 50¢ $150 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $235 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $780 4d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $499 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.41 (match) · 3500 history records