Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:57:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x39fc…e2f2
sports · 870 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$23,679 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24,551 · open −$872
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,614
Realized+$24,551
Unrealized−$872
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses401 / 435
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,596
Open positions35
Markets (closed)836 / 870
History coverage11d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day195.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 35 History 836 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,750
7 days+$7,970
14 days+$24,551
30 days+$24,551
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5) Minnesota Twins 30¢ 98¢ $153 $488 +$336 (+220%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Washington Nationals 45¢ 45¢ $215 $215 +$0 (+0%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $120 $162 +$42 (+35%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $111 $110 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 67¢ 54¢ $135 $108 −$27 (-20%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 49¢ 100¢ $49 $101 +$52 (+106%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 55¢ 42¢ $93 $72 −$21 (-23%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Under 34¢ 94¢ $15 $41 +$26 (+175%)
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Qatar 58¢ 99¢ $24 $40 +$17 (+71%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 36¢ 48¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+32%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) New York Yankees 67¢ 76¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+14%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Miami Marlins 60¢ 58¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Under 35¢ 68¢ $9 $17 +$8 (+93%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Under 35¢ 38¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? No 62¢ 35¢ $27 $15 −$12 (-43%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? No 69¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Over 21¢ 36¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+69%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+33%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Over 35¢ 100¢ $4 $11 +$7 (+187%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Yes 7¢ 65¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+829%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 18¢ $29 $10 −$19 (-64%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) Minnesota Twins 85¢ 64¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-25%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners Over 44¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+127%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 20¢ 24¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 75¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $559 +$218 +39%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 13 $560 +$568 +101%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $756 +$244 +32%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $15 +$34 +230%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $1,468 +$1,318 +90%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$5 -51%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 13 $101 −$1 -1%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 13 $301 +$30 +10%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $122 −$27 -22%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $3 +$5 +172%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2 +$11 +510%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 13 $3 +$4 +114%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 13 $34 +$98 +292%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $35 +$5 +14%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $43 +$17 +40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $627 −$615 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 13 $11 +$14 +124%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$6 +325%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $118 +$51 +43%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $237 +$116 +49%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $20 −$15 -75%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,596 +$174 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $409 +$72 +18%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $877 +$751 +86%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $223 −$206 -92%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $77 +$146 +188%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $970 +$195 +20%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $93 +$16 +17%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $12 −$1 -5%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $190 +$29 +15%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $13 +$6 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $588 +$712 +121%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $121 +$17 +14%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $66 −$58 -88%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $110 +$33 +30%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $107 −$104 -98%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $39 −$38 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $765 −$752 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% +$24,582
other 3% −$903
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 26¢ $4 1m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 21¢ $7 4m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 74¢ $4 6m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 60¢ $30 6m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 85¢ $13 7m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $3 9m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $3 9m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $15 15m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 43¢ $18 15m
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $218 23m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 37¢ $113 23m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 77¢ $4 25m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 30¢ $152 31m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit BUY Yes 92¢ $28 35m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit BUY Yes 47¢ $135 36m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit BUY Yes 48¢ $398 36m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $5 41m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 23¢ $6 41m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $2 42m
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 83¢ $23 42m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $2 42m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 18¢ $2 52m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 35¢ $9 52m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 36¢ $6 54m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 67¢ $26 57m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $13 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $8 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $3 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 678 -11.4% -19.8% 40% 38% -2.0%
≤30d 836 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 46% +8.1%
≤90d 836 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 46% +8.1%
all 836 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 46% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover195.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 46% +8.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 40% -2.2%
15% -24.2% 34% -11.7%
20% -31.6% 28% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,614.14 · official $1,598.82 (match) · 3500 history records