Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
39 0x39fa…7fd7 world 22 markets active 13h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$2
other 14% −$2
crypto 5% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 57% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 62% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 62% 0% -8.8%
all 22 +0.4% -9.2% 68% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage445d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $79 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $21 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 +5%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Jul 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jun 24 $9 $0 +2%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 23 $7 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 10 $8 $0 -1%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 09 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 07 $15 −$2 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $18 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $17 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $20 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $38 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $42 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $41 4d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $23 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $14 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $27 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $36 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $36 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $40 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $40 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 6d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 7d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 7d
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? SELL No 100¢ $2 327d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? SELL No 99¢ $9 357d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 97¢ $9 358d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records