Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
39 0x39f8…1520 other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$10
politics 24% −$10
economics 6% −$2
sports 3% −$14
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 +1.8% -7.9% 12% 9% -9.6%
all 109 +1.8% -7.9% 12% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 9% -9.6%
10% -16.7% 9% -18.3%
15% -24.8% 9% -26.2%
20% -32.2% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage87d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $206 $206 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $352 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $141 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $345 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $351 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $916 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $296 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $1,202 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $308 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $314 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $301 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $321 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $311 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $300 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 04 $318 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $314 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $319 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $315 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $313 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 26 $325 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $305 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $705 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $958 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $311 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $315 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $303 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $335 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $596 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $321 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 3h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 22h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 27h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 47h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $206 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 11d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 13d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $37 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 16d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 17d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 18d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 24d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $141 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.29 · official $206.29 (match) · 313 history records