Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
39 0x39f7…48c1 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%14W / 30L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$3
other 37% −$1
politics 20% +$1
sports 2% $0
culture 1% +$2
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 -0.3% -9.8% 28% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 18 -0.3% -9.8% 28% 0% -9.1%
all 44 +0.5% -9.1% 32% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 5% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage299d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $35 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $61 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $49 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $66 +$4 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $66 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $30 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 08 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $74 $0 +0%
2025 August third hottest on record? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Sep 02 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 29 $74 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 28 $74 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Aug 28 $1 $0 +15%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $73 $0 -0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? Aug 27 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 27 $66 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Aug 26 $73 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $32 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $20 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $36 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $36 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $12 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 37h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $32 42h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $19 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $36 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $24 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $24 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $13 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.78 · official $31.79 (match) · 172 history records