Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39f6…f695 other 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$13
sports 27% −$24
politics 26% −$9
crypto 8% −$18
culture 6% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 2% +$2
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 47 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 0% -9.8%
all 141 -0.5% -9.9% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage162d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $49 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $265 +$1 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 12 $126 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $231 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $507 −$2 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $103 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 09 $892 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 09 $165 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 08 $1,183 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 07 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $263 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 04 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 31 $240 −$2 -1%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $245 −$2 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $174 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $934 −$3 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 28 $292 −$6 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $348 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $351 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $359 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $171 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 26 $354 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $175 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 23 $183 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 23 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $184 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $377 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 21 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $176 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $299 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $49 8d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $49 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $50 20d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $50 21d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 35d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 35d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 68d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 68d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $59 68d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $59 68d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 93¢ $49 68d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 92¢ $49 68d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $43 68d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $43 69d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $48 69d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $49 69d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $61 69d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $61 69d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $66 69d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $66 69d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $47 69d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $47 70d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $47 70d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $47 70d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $62 70d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $62 70d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 70d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 71d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 93¢ $51 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.85 · official $51.85 (match) · 620 history records