Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10.0
score
39 0x39f6…abe1 other 729 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$32,048 (+14%) realized +$32,048 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate80%584W / 145L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$669est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$414
7 days+$1,634
14 days+$1,921
30 days+$6,821
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$17,000
sports 33% +$11,825
world 0% −$175
crypto 0% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +23.2% +11.5% 77% 59% +6.7%
≤30d 207 +24.9% +13.0% 77% 64% -1.5%
≤90d 729 +28.2% +16.0% 80% 67% +2.0%
all 729 +28.2% +16.0% 80% 67% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.0% 67% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here +4.9% 44% -7.7%
15% -5.2% 26% -16.6%
20% -14.5% 18% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$138 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32,048
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses584 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$669
Open positions0
Markets (closed)729 / 729
History coverage82d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 729 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$35 +58%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $650 +$143 +22%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,830 +$402 +22%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 −$179 -35%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $16 +$4 +23%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $17 −$11 -65%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $19 +$20 +105%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 +$8 +16%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $588 −$38 -6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 −$16 -24%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $165 +$272 +165%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,273 +$417 +33%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,218 +$264 +22%
Will CD La Serena win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $295 +$25 +9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,807 +$162 +9%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $151 +$13 +8%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $233 +$90 +39%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $17 +$6 +33%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $132 +$13 +10%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $355 +$114 +32%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $35 +$8 +23%
Northern Ireland vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $106 +$18 +17%
Sweden vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $27 +$26 +95%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $890 −$655 -74%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $472 +$154 +33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $438 +$103 +24%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $4 +$1 +23%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +81%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $115 +$28 +25%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $30 −$1 -4%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $22 +$3 +12%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $45 +$9 +19%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $325 +$57 +18%
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +94%
Will Thespa Gunma win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +90%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $249 +$23 +9%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $382 −$215 -56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $161 +$115 +72%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $131 +$242 +184%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,328 +$251 +19%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $97 +$10 +10%
Will FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora end in a draw? Jun 02 $48 −$1 -3%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $104 −$38 -36%
Will Angel City FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $6 +$1 +15%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $6 +$2 +31%
Will CD Los Chankas win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $37 +$23 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 37m
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 40m
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 43¢ $0 1h
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 89¢ $0 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 61¢ $0 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 61¢ $91 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $59 1h
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 62¢ $1 2h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $793 16h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $650 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 89¢ $2,217 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,815 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $19 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $4 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $302 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 28¢ $15 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $20 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $505 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 27¢ $15 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $16 19h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $3 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $0 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 32¢ $3 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 84¢ $17 21h
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $40 40h
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $19 40h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2307 history records