Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39ed…df8d crypto 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$85 (-4%) realized −$59 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%39W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$80
14 days−$80
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$6
other 9% −$75
culture 7% −$26
sports 6% −$65
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -63.1% -66.6% 20% 20% -63.5%
≤30d 10 -63.1% -66.6% 20% 20% -63.5%
≤90d 92 -10.3% -18.8% 42% 41% -17.0%
all 92 -10.3% -18.8% 42% 41% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 41% -17.0%
10% -26.6% 40% -25.0%
15% -33.7% 38% -32.2%
20% -40.2% 36% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$20 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses39 / 53
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage52d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $135 $109 −$26 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$26 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 06 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 06 $11 +$22 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 06 $11 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 06 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 06 $17 +$30 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 05 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 05 $28 +$32 +112%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $51 +$31 +62%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 01 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 01 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 01 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 01 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 01 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 01 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 01 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 01 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 01 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 01 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 01 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 30 $12 +$15 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 30 $52 +$52 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 30 $42 +$54 +129%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 30 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 30 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 30 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 30 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 30 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 30 $63 +$94 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 30 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 30 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 30 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 30 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 30 $36 +$41 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 30 $46 +$24 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 11h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 4d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $11 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $11 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.98 · official $139.45 · 231 history records