Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39ed…dae7 crypto 580 markets active 16h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate78%452W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day55.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$7
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 442 +1.1% -8.6% 81% 51% -8.3%
≤30d 580 -0.2% -9.7% 78% 53% -9.4%
≤90d 580 -0.2% -9.7% 78% 53% -9.4%
all 580 -0.2% -9.7% 78% 53% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 53% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 26% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 9% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses452 / 128
Open positions0
Markets (closed)580 / 580
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day55.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 580 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1139 history records