Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:14:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39ed…4ec8 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%18W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$3
other 26% −$1
politics 16% −$1
sports 8% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 4% $0
tech 3% +$1
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.0% -11.4% 25% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 22% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 10 -2.4% -11.7% 20% 0% -10.8%
all 62 -1.5% -10.8% 29% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 2% -9.9%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses18 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage274d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $18 −$1 -5%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $47 −$1 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $21 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $59 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $2 $0 -6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $5 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 24 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 31 $4 $0 +11%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 13 $12 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $5 $0 -5%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $1 $0 +3%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 26 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $44 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $20 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $26 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $47 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 42h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $4 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $59 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $59 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $2 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $31 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $31 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.90 · official $42.90 (match) · 203 history records