Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 9 History 96 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$138
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 60¢ 62¢ $2,332 $2,391 +$58 (+2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 74¢ 50¢ $740 $505 −$235 (-32%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 63¢ 36¢ $630 $355 −$275 (-44%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 81¢ 34¢ $810 $345 −$465 (-57%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 68¢ 59¢ $137 $118 −$19 (-14%)
Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 56¢ 80¢ $74 $105 +$31 (+42%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 66¢ 50¢ $133 $101 −$32 (-24%)
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 81¢ 66¢ $81 $66 −$15 (-19%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Yes 81¢ $8,436 $0 −$8,436 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,240 +$138 +6%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $1,385 −$1,350 -98%
Over $2M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 28 $360 −$360 -100%
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 23 $342 +$75 +22%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 03 $658 +$267 +41%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 03 $822 +$274 +33%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 03 $2,560 +$4,357 +170%
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 25 $71 +$3 +4%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 27 $9 −$8 -94%
Over $80M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 21 $34 −$30 -88%
Over $20M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 21 $1,486 −$1,486 -100%
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 21 $6,238 −$6,238 -100%
Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch? Jan 19 $9 $0 +4%
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 16 $235 +$225 +96%
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $154 +$581 +376%
Over $40M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $128 −$100 -78%
Over $60M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $20 −$15 -75%
Over $100M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $2 $0 -0%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 05 $1,102 +$1,804 +164%
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 05 $2,102 +$1,518 +72%
Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Jan 04 $781 +$6 +1%
Will Thomas Lee appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Jan 04 $0 +$1 +456%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 04 $1,256 +$593 +47%
Will thiccy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Jan 04 $1,747 +$727 +42%
Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 04 $1,900 +$73 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 30 $6,828 +$1,222 +18%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 28 $479 +$92 +19%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 22 $8,436 −$8,436 -100%
Harmonix FDV above $100M one day after launch? Dec 19 $41 +$11 +26%
Harmonix FDV above $50M one day after launch? Dec 19 $380 +$118 +31%
Will FrankResearcher win the competition? Dec 18 $172 +$43 +25%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 16 $275 +$12 +4%
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch? Dec 16 $123 −$123 -100%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Dec 16 $1,405 −$1,405 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 16 $2,470 −$2,470 -100%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 10 $700 +$53 +8%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $6,011 +$344 +6%
Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch? Nov 28 $5,282 +$1,117 +21%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 25 $630 +$370 +59%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 25 $3,491 +$321 +9%
Will Martin Shkreli appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Nov 24 $4 $0 +12%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 24 $5,577 +$384 +7%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Nov 24 $3,264 +$174 +5%
Will Ansem appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Nov 23 $640 +$249 +39%
Will Ansem win the Synthetix trading competition? Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitlord win the Synthetix trading competition? Nov 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Horse win the Synthetix trading competition? Nov 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Evgeny Gaevoy win the Synthetix trading competition? Nov 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will DaiDaiBTC win the Synthetix trading competition? Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Daddy Fiskantes win the Synthetix trading competition? Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 89% +$16,180
crypto 7% +$8,584
finance 2% +$375
politics 1% +$751
culture 1% +$308
sports 0% +$247
economics 0% +$19
world 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $79 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $10 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $500 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $10 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $13 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $75 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 0% -3.9%
≤90d 8 +9.8% -0.6% 75% 50% +27.0%
all 96 +47.8% +33.8% 73% 44% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.8% 44% +1.9%
10% ← realistic here +21.0% 29% -7.9%
15% +9.3% 21% -16.8%
20% -1.4% 16% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,985.18 · official $3,985.17 (match) · 1720 history records