Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
39 0x39ea…bec0 sports 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$81 (-1%) realized −$66 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate72%91W / 36L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$5
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$3
sports 28% −$112
other 7% +$21
politics 2% +$1
world 0% $0
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.8% -8.8% 73% 29% -9.7%
≤30d 103 +2.4% -7.4% 72% 34% -9.0%
≤90d 103 +2.4% -7.4% 72% 34% -9.0%
all 127 +1.1% -8.5% 72% 32% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 32% -10.0%
10% -17.2% 22% -18.6%
15% -25.2% 20% -26.5%
20% -32.6% 19% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses91 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)127 / 131
History coverage557d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 88¢ 87¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 48¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ 8¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $200 $0 +0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $200 $0 +0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $114 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $69 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $144 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $150 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $20 +$12 +57%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $200 $0 +0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $16 −$16 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $21 −$21 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $15 +$12 +76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $104 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $16 +$11 +70%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $21 +$15 +70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $15 +$10 +67%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $15 +$9 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $15 −$6 -40%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $11 +$7 +62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $180 $0 +0%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $15 +$3 +21%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$8 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $82 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $6 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $6 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $200 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $99 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $99 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $99 21h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 57¢ $10 25h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $10 25h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $10 25h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $15 25h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 88¢ $18 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $200 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $200 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $150 40h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $69 40h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $114 40h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $10 46h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $10 46h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 65¢ $16 46h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $20 46h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $21 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $200 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $89 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $23 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $34 46h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $144 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.72 · official $227.72 (match) · 262 history records