Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:42:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x39e9…37b7 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+1%) realized +$74 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%85W / 3L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$24
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 38 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 3% -8.5%
≤90d 83 +0.3% -9.3% 98% 1% -8.5%
all 88 +0.2% -9.3% 97% 1% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -8.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×20.15 per $1 lost it wins $20.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses85 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage96d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $167 $166 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $166 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $162 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $161 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $160 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $54 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $140 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $45 +$7 +16%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 30 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 29 $80 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 23 $84 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 19 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 15 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 13 $70 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 12 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 10 $60 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 09 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 08 $72 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 07 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 06 $65 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 04 $60 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $167 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $167 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $166 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $150 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 94¢ $6 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $162 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $161 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $160 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY No 56¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $150 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $50 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $108 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $50 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $126 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 95¢ $30 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $14 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $100 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $40 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $100 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 98¢ $40 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY No 85¢ $45 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? BUY No 99¢ $90 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $90 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $92 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? BUY No 97¢ $50 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? BUY No 96¢ $30 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $30 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $58 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? BUY No 96¢ $30 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.92 · official $165.92 (match) · 180 history records