Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
39 0x39e4…f089 sports 367 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$134 (+1%) realized +$135 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%156W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$236est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$16
other 5% −$82
crypto 0% −$22
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +12.3% +1.6% 62% 62% -0.8%
≤30d 47 +1.3% -8.3% 47% 47% -8.4%
≤90d 286 +5.6% -4.4% 44% 44% -8.9%
all 366 +2.3% -7.5% 43% 42% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 42% -10.0%
10% -16.3% 42% -18.6%
15% -24.4% 42% -26.4%
20% -31.8% 41% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$38 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$135
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses156 / 210
Est. fees paid−$236
Open positions1
Markets (closed)366 / 367
History coverage105d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 29 $41 +$44 +108%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 28 $66 −$64 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $64 +$43 +67%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $34 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $48 +$50 +105%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $53 −$52 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 27 $34 +$19 +56%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $51 +$31 +62%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $54 −$53 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $35 −$35 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $54 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 +$2 +61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $66 +$72 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$16 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $57 +$60 +105%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $54 +$56 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $45 +$65 +144%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $45 −$29 -63%
Map Handicap: YN (-1.5) vs against All authority (+1.5) Jun 12 $58 +$44 +76%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $75 +$55 +73%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $13 +$12 +97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $48 +$61 +127%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $58 −$57 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $37 +$81 +216%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) Jun 09 $18 +$20 +114%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$8 +76%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Lazer Cats (+1.5) Jun 07 $54 −$53 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $51 −$51 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $31 +$20 +65%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Pla Jun 05 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $50 +$80 +162%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs MANA eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 05 $43 +$107 +250%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs paiN Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Jun 05 $56 +$148 +266%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 04 $31 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $53 +$42 +79%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Sout May 29 $114 −$113 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 48¢ $33 30h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 48¢ $2 30h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 48¢ $5 30h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Sharks 39¢ $36 34h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Sharks 38¢ $30 34h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $107 43h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $34 47h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $64 47h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL Acend 100¢ $98 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 55¢ $53 2d
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se SELL Red Feet 50¢ $53 2d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 48¢ $48 2d
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Red Feet 31¢ $34 2d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $82 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 61¢ $51 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $54 16d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY Sashi Academy 11¢ $8 16d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY Sashi Academy 11¢ $1 16d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY Sashi Academy 11¢ $1 16d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY Sashi Academy 10¢ $1 16d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY Sashi Academy 10¢ $3 16d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY Sashi Academy 10¢ $0 16d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY Sashi Academy 10¢ $22 16d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $54 16d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $5 17d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $138 17d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 51¢ $2 17d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $66 17d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 62¢ $3 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.91 · official $29.93 (match) · 832 history records