Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39e4…03d4 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+8%) realized +$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$24
other 6% $0
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-56.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -52.1% -56.7% 25% 25% +8.7%
≤30d 4 -52.1% -56.7% 25% 25% +8.7%
≤90d 4 -52.1% -56.7% 25% 25% +8.7%
all 4 -52.1% -56.7% 25% 25% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.7% 25% +8.7%
10% -60.8% 25% -1.7%
15% -64.6% 25% -11.2%
20% -68.1% 25% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$37 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$27 -88%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $149 +$136 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 3¢ $3 56m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $31 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $36 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $285 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $149 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.95 · official $26.95 (match) · 8 history records