Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39e3…ff1a crypto 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate65%61W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$3
sports 11% −$15
other 2% $0
culture 2% +$4
politics 1% −$4
world 0% −$6
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 94 -2.6% -11.9% 65% 19% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 19% -9.8%
10% -20.3% 18% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 14% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 13% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses61 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage307d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 19? May 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 13? May 13 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 8? May 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6? May 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 25? Apr 27 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 24 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? Apr 11 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 23? Mar 24 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 16? Feb 19 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 11? Feb 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on February 2? Feb 03 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 30? Jan 30 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on January 1? Jan 05 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 18? Dec 19 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on December 15? Dec 16 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 11? Dec 12 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 4? Dec 05 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 1? Dec 01 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on November 29? Nov 30 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 24? Nov 25 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 21? Nov 22 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 17? Nov 17 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 14? Nov 15 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 10? Nov 10 $166 $0 +0%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Oct 31 $48 +$13 +27%
UTEP vs. Kennesaw State Oct 29 $22 +$6 +28%
Commanders vs. Chiefs Oct 28 $22 +$4 +16%
Buccaneers vs. Saints Oct 27 $27 +$14 +52%
Vikings vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5 Oct 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Lions Oct 21 $38 +$3 +8%
Steelers vs. Bengals Oct 17 $7 +$15 +212%
Brewers vs. Dodgers Oct 17 $26 +$16 +61%
Spread: Delaware Blue Hens (-3.5) Oct 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Eagles vs. Giants Oct 10 $5 +$15 +335%
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Oct 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Mariners vs. Tigers Oct 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $52 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $52 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $52 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $52 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 48d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $101 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $102 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $103 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $101 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $102 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $101 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $101 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $152 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $154 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 16? BUY No 100¢ $149 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 11? BUY No 100¢ $150 139d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 9? BUY No 100¢ $148 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $151 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $146 144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $145 145d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on February 2? BUY No 100¢ $148 147d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? BUY No 100¢ $146 149d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 30? BUY No 100¢ $149 151d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on January 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $147 180d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 18? BUY No 100¢ $146 193d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on December 15? BUY No 100¢ $144 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.58 · official $51.58 (match) · 236 history records