Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
39 0x39de…94e2 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$153 (+21%) realized +$153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$133
14 days+$133
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$91
crypto 36% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -13.9% -22.1% 62% 62% +14.9%
≤30d 8 -13.9% -22.1% 62% 62% +14.9%
≤90d 8 -13.9% -22.1% 62% 62% +14.9%
all 8 -13.9% -22.1% 62% 62% +14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 62% +14.9%
10% -29.5% 50% +3.9%
15% -36.3% 38% -6.1%
20% -42.6% 12% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$5 · ×6.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.1 per $1 lost it wins $10.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage31d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $106 +$55 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $256 +$42 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $298 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $79 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $67 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $65 21d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $19 30d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 30d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 31d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 31d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 31d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 31d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 31d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 31d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 31d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 31d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 31d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.73 · official $217.73 (match) · 52 history records