Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
39 0x39de…ed0d finance 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+6%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 61% +$17
other 39% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.1% -5.0% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤30d 1 +5.1% -5.0% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤90d 3 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 33% -2.7%
all 4 +7.8% -2.5% 100% 25% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 25% -2.7%
10% -11.8% 0% -12.0%
15% -20.3% 0% -20.5%
20% -28.1% 0% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage191d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 21 $81 +$4 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 29 $79 +$3 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Apr 10 $69 +$10 +15%
Maduro out in 2025? Mar 15 $64 +$5 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $85 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 95¢ $81 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? SELL No 100¢ $82 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 96¢ $79 72d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? BUY No 87¢ $69 96d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $64 190d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.95 · official $84.95 (match) · 9 history records