Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39d7…a8ce other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$396 (-20%) realized −$388 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate37%17W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$13
14 days+$8
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$429
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.8% +5.7% 60% 20% -4.8%
≤30d 17 -23.2% -30.5% 41% 29% -3.1%
≤90d 46 -21.4% -28.9% 37% 26% -29.7%
all 46 -21.4% -28.9% 37% 26% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 26% -29.7%
10% -35.7% 20% -36.4%
15% -41.9% 15% -42.6%
20% -47.6% 9% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$24 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$388
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Open positions6
Markets (closed)46 / 52
History coverage83d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $30 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 46¢ 58¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $148 +$7 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $29 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $31 +$14 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $54 +$64 +117%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $22 +$6 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $23 −$3 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $6 +$2 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $127 −$12 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $33 +$6 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $557 −$550 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $405 +$94 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? May 10 $104 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 14 $62 +$48 +78%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 07 $6 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 07 $11 −$1 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 07 $11 −$8 -70%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 07 $9 −$6 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 06 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $12 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 06 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $12 +$6 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $3 −$2 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 05 $1 $0 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 04 $2 +$4 +202%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $155 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $148 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $29 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $29 3d
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $33 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $34 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $45 15d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 15d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 15d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $118 16d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 16d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 16d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 16d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 17d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $22 21d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 22d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $23 23d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.68 · official $56.69 (match) · 154 history records